Automotive Transmission Market Size, Share, Analysis, Report, 2030

The global automotive transmission market size was valued at USD 62.4 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 4.2 billion by 2028, at a CAGR of 6.2% during the forecast period. The growth in the market is primarily driven by technological advancements leading to more efficient transmission systems and stringent emissions regulations necessitating the adoption of fuel-efficient transmission solutions. Additionally, increasing vehicle production, rising demand for automatic transmissions, and the expanding market for electric and hybrid vehicles contribute to the market's growth.

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Automotive Transmission Market Dynamics

DRIVER: Growing demand for lightweight transmission systems

The introduction of government regulations for safety, carbon emission, and lightweight vehicles is forcing OEMs to use components that will help in an overall weight reduction of the car. Technological advancements play a significant role, with the adoption of lightweight materials such as aluminum, magnesium, and high-strength steel composites in transmission components offering substantial weight reductions without compromising strength or durability. Additionally, additive manufacturing, such as 3D printing, enables the production of complex, lightweight transmission parts with optimized designs. Improved transmission architecture and gear designs further contribute to weight reduction.

Economically, lightweight transmissions offer several benefits. They enhanced fuel efficiency, lowering consumer operating costs and reducing CO2 emissions. Furthermore, weight reduction improves vehicle performance, including acceleration, handling, and braking. From a production standpoint, lighter components can reduce manufacturing costs due to decreased material usage and simplified manufacturing processes. Transmission suppliers invest in research and development to offer lighter, more efficient transmission solutions catering to the evolving automotive transmission systems market demand. Additionally, as the market diversifies with the increasing demand for electric and hybrid vehicles, there's a growing need for lightweight transmissions specifically designed for these powertrains.

RESTRAINT:  High cost of adoption and frequent maintenance of advanced transmission systems

The high cost of adoption and maintenance of advanced transmission systems poses a significant barrier to their widespread acceptance. Systems like dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs) and continuously variable transmissions (CVTs) come with premium pricing due to their added complexity, limiting their appeal in cost-sensitive automotive transmission markets, particularly among small car buyers. Moreover, the complexity of these systems increases maintenance costs and requires specialized technicians, further deterring consumers concerned about long-term reliability and repair expenses. The lack of familiarity, fears of higher repair costs, and long-term durability uncertainty contribute to consumer aversion and preference for established transmission technologies.

Additionally, limited economies of scale and infrastructure challenges exacerbate the cost issue. The relatively low adoption rates of advanced systems hinder the realization of economies of scale, keeping production costs high. Moreover, the availability of skilled technicians and service infrastructure for these systems could be improved, particularly in certain regions, adding to maintenance complexities and consumer reluctance. Concerns about residual value also arise, impacting the resale market for vehicles equipped with advanced transmissions, as potential buyers weigh the perceived risks associated with higher maintenance costs and unknown long-term reliability.

OPPORTUNITY: Increasing adoption of automatic transmissions and development of hybrid drives

The automotive industry is witnessing a significant shift towards automatic transmissions, driven by urbanization, rising disposable income in developing automotive transmission markets, and technological advancements enhancing fuel efficiency and performance. Additionally, government regulations favoring lighter, more efficient vehicles and the integration of automatics with hybrid and electric powertrains further accelerate this trend. Furthermore, the increasing adoption of hybrid drives presents substantial growth opportunities fueled by environmental concerns, government incentives, and the potential for significant fuel savings and performance improvements. With expanding infrastructure and emerging markets, coupled with the potential synergy between automatic transmissions and autonomous driving systems, the future of the automotive industry is poised for transformative growth.

Moreover, opportunities extend beyond traditional markets, with emerging trends like car subscription services and personalized hybrid drive systems catering to evolving consumer preferences. As the industry continues to innovate and adapt to changing dynamics, embracing these opportunities will be crucial for stakeholders to stay competitive and capitalize on the growing demand for advanced transmission technologies and hybrid vehicles.

CHALLENGE: Reduction in costs for lightweight and efficient transmission

The dilemma faced by the automotive industry is between technological innovation and cost reduction. The automotive industry faces a crucial dilemma in harmonizing technological advancements with cost efficiency, particularly concerning lightweight and efficient transmission systems. While incorporating advanced materials like aluminum and carbon fiber composites shows potential for enhancing fuel economy and complying with emission standards, their higher costs pose significant obstacles. Manufacturing intricate components with these materials demands specialized techniques and equipment, further driving up production expenses. Additionally, challenges stemming from limited economies of scale and volatile raw material prices complicate efforts to attain cost competitiveness for lightweight transmission solutions.

To address these hurdles, substantial investments in research and development are imperative to spur innovation and streamline manufacturing processes. Moreover, optimizing supply chain logistics and establishing universal industry standards can bolster endeavors to reduce costs. However, effectively tackling consumer price sensitivity and ensuring accessible aftermarket support are essential considerations amidst fierce automotive transmission market competition and evolving regulatory landscapes. Striking the delicate balance between efficiency and affordability is a pivotal task for the automotive sector in surmounting the cost reduction challenge for lightweight and efficient transmission systems.

Automatic Transmission Market Ecosystem

The Automatic transmission segment is expected to be the most prominent automotive transmission market during the forecast period.

The manual transmission market is declining as it moves toward automated transmission technologies. The automatic transmission segment is poised to emerge as the most significant automotive transmission market in the future, driven by several key factors. Growing urbanization and rising disposable income in emerging automotive transmission markets propel demand for feature-rich vehicles, where automatic transmissions offer enhanced comfort and convenience, particularly in congested urban environments. Technological advancements, such as improved fuel efficiency and performance of modern automatics, address previous concerns and align with stringent government regulations promoting lighter, more efficient vehicles. Moreover, integrating automatic transmissions with hybrid and electric powertrains unlocks further efficiency gains, accelerating their adoption alongside shifting consumer preferences towards convenience and safety features.

Market trends further support the dominance of automatic transmissions, particularly in segments like SUVs and crossovers, where they are predominantly offered. Companies are working towards the development of transmissions. For instance, ZF is innovating transmission solutions tailored for electric and hybrid vehicles, incorporating features like multi-stage gear reduction for enhanced efficiency and optimized power delivery. They are also exploring two-speed transmission architectures to boost performance and range while investing in integrated electric drives to improve overall efficiency and sustainability. Continuous development of new automated technologies and customization options cater to diverse driving preferences, while the rapid growth in vehicle sales in developing countries presents significant opportunities for automotive automotic market expansion. However, challenges such as ensuring cost competitiveness, addressing maintenance complexities, and addressing consumer perception regarding reliability and repair costs remain crucial for maintaining the segment's sustained growth and leadership position.

The 6-8 Number of gears is projected to be the most prominent automotive transmission market during the forecast period.

These transmissions offer a balance of comfort, efficiency, and performance, making them increasingly favored by OEMs and consumers. With advancements in transmission technology, including lighter materials and optimized gear design, 6-8-speed transmissions can achieve superior fuel economy while maintaining durability and reliability. One of the key drivers of growth is the demand for improved fuel efficiency. The rising adoption of 6, 7, and 8-speed automatic transmissions is fueled by their fuel efficiency and performance enhancement benefits. These transmissions optimize fuel consumption, deliver smoother acceleration, and provide better control, especially in larger vehicles like SUVs.

Additionally, they offer improved driver comfort and convenience with smoother gear changes, integrated safety features, and options for a more engaging driving experience. More gears allow for better engine performance optimization across various speeds, which is particularly beneficial in urban driving conditions where frequent speed changes occur. Additionally, the enhanced performance provided by additional gears translates to smoother acceleration, quicker response times, and improved hill climbing ability, offering consumers a more dynamic driving experience.

Moreover, as fuel efficiency and emissions regulations become increasingly stringent, manufacturers are turning to transmissions with higher gear ratios to comply with these standards while meeting consumer expectations for performance and comfort. Furthermore, integrating 6-8 speed transmissions with hybrid and electric powertrains enhances their versatility and efficiency, making them an ideal choice for the evolving automotive landscape. Some of the companies offering 6-8-speed transmissions includes, VW Audi, BMW Mini, Stellantis Jeep, Porsche, Volvo, Mazda, etc. However, challenges such as higher transmission manufacturing complexity and costs and the need for skilled technicians for maintenance and repair must be addressed to ensure the continued growth and success of the 6-8-speed transmission segment in the automotive market.

The Asia Pacific automotive Transmission market is projected to hold the largest share by 2028

The Asia Pacific automotive transmission market is driven by robust growth, rising disposable incomes, and evolving consumer preferences favoring automatic transmissions. The region's rapid expansion in vehicle sales, particularly in countries like China and India, fuels demand for transmissions, with a notable shift towards automatics due to increasing urbanization and stringent government regulations on fuel efficiency and emissions. Localization efforts and cost competitiveness further propel this growth as international and domestic transmission manufacturers establish production facilities in APAC to cater to the growing market demand.

China dominates the APAC market, driven by its substantial automotive growth and demand for premium vehicles equipped with advanced transmissions. Meanwhile, the rise of smaller, fuel-efficient cars with automatic transmissions in India and Southeast Asia reflects shifting consumer preferences and urbanization trends. However, infrastructure development, consumer affordability, and intense market competition necessitate continuous innovation and strategic measures to maintain market leadership in the highly dynamic APAC automotive transmission landscape.

Key Market Players

The automotive transmission market companies are Aisin Corporation (Japan), ZF Friedrichshafen AG (Germany), Magna Iternational Inc. (Canada), JATCO Ltd. (Japan), Borgwarner Inc. (US), Eaton Corporation (Ireland), Hyundai Transys (South Korea), Allison transmissions (US), Vitesco Technologies (Germany), Schaeffler AG (Germany), GKN Automotive (UK), and more.

These companies adopted new product launches, partnerships, and joint ventures to gain traction in the automotive transmission market.

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Recent Developments

• In December 2023, ZF Friedrichshafen AG expanded the local production of transmissions and axles in Coimbatore, India. The expansion includes a new plant catering to domestic and selected export automotive transmission market. To fulfill customer expectations, the company aims to meet rising demands for intelligent systems, sustainable tech, and swift development cycles.
• In September 2023, Aisin Corporation presented a range of electrification technologies and innovations at the 2023 Detroit Auto Show. It includes advanced axles for enhanced energy efficiency, a 1-motor Hybrid Transmission, and a 2-motor Hybrid System for improved performance.
• In October 2022, Magna International Inc. and Stellantis developed a 48-volt hybrid dual-clutch transmission for the Jeep Renegade and Compass e-Hybrid. This 7-speed transmission delivers up to 320 Nm of torque and employs torque-split technology for optimized efficiency between the combustion engine and the e-motor.
• In July 2022, BluE Nexus, Aisin, and Denso collaborated on a 1-motor hybrid transmission for the new Toyota Crown Crossover RS version. This transmission combines a Direct Shift-6AT, drive motor, and inverter into a single unit, ensuring excellent acceleration and fuel efficiency.
• In May 2022, ZF Friedrichshafen AG developed the second generation of the EcoLife CoachLine, a 6-speed automatic transmission designed for urban, intercity, and mountainous routes. This transmission incorporates a start-stop function, delivering up to 3% fuel savings compared to the previous version.
• In March 2022, JATCO Ltd. introduced a novel surface machining technology for wet clutches, which offers increased stability, frictional characteristics, and durability. It is engaged in joint development with Tokuhatsu Co., Ltd. (Japan), leveraging micro press technology to prepare for mass production of AT, CVT, and e-axle for electrified vehicles.

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