5G NTN Market

The 5G NTN market is estimated to be worth USD 7.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 31.7  billion by 2029 at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 34.7% during the forecast period. The 5G NTN market is gaining momentum due to its unique ability to ensure communication continuity in critical situations. Unlike terrestrial networks vulnerable to natural disasters or physical damage, 5G NTN offers resilience. This ensures the uninterrupted operation of critical infrastructure and emergency response systems during disasters. Additionally, the ever-growing number of IoT devices and machine-to-machine (M2M) communication rely on dependable and scalable connectivity. 5G NTN fulfills this need by providing reliable data exchange across vast geographical regions, driving significant market growth.

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5G NTN Market Trends

Driver:  3GPP evolution toward NTN interworking and integration

Integrating terrestrial networks with NTN, such as HAPS in the stratosphere or satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) or Geostationary Orbit (GEO), is a significant advancement introduced in 5G. The initial phase of this evolution was completed in Release 16, and 3GPP is now focusing on further developments in Release 17, including enabling NTNs within the 5G system. NTN functionality is crucial to the 3GPP Release 17 standard and continues to evolve in 5G-Advanced, becoming a key component of the 3GPP Release 18 work plan. NTNs are categorized into two groups: NTN-HOT and NTN-NR. The NTN-IoT group focuses on low-complexity NB-IoT/MIC terminal satellite IoT services, such as global asset tracking for sea containers or other terminals outside cellular network coverage. In the future, direct satellite connections to mobile phones will be widely used in personal applications and various vertical industries, significantly broadening the scope of satellite applications. Convergence technology innovation is actively pursued worldwide, accelerating the integration chain and fostering deep integration between the cellular and satellite industries. The merging of satellite networks with terrestrial networks promises substantial commercial benefits.

Restraint: Need for radio components to be grounded

Radio components like NB and relay operate in space, while the core network must be ground-based. This means that satellites or airborne platforms must eventually connect to a ground station. The challenge lies in a satellite's limited distance before losing connection with the ground station. Consequently, numerous ground stations and satellites are needed to cover extensive areas. Establishing ground stations can be particularly difficult in certain situations, such as covering a large ocean, requiring multiple satellites and their corresponding ground stations. Building ground stations capable of covering such satellites would be challenging. One proposed solution is allowing satellites to connect to the core network indirectly through another satellite rather than directly to a ground station. This would require the creation of relay networks or mesh networks among the satellites. While theoretically feasible and considered in most satellite communication systems from the outset, practical implementation remains challenging. These implementation difficulties could hinder the growth of the 5G NTN market and affect investments from players in the ecosystem.

Opportunity: Need for NTN in Evolution Toward 5G and 6G

Space communications hold promise as a key enabler not only for 5G but also for future 6G wireless technology. Integrating air and spaceborne platforms with terrestrial networks is anticipated to achieve even greater success in 6G. 6G-enabled NTNs may incorporate new technologies such as laser communications, optical and holographic communications, machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), and photonic-based cognitive radio to achieve low latency and high reliability in space-Earth transmissions. NTN communications may become essential in 6G wireless to ensure flexibility and integration of terrestrial and satellite networks.

Challenge: Signal interception

Intercepting 5G NTN  signals presents significant technical challenges due to the advanced security features and the unique nature of these communications.In order to create a complex and dynamic network environment, 5G NTN integrates terrestrial 5G infrastructure with satellite and aircraft platforms. Interception attempts are made more difficult by the improved encryption and authentication procedures included into 5G technology, as well as the increased mobility of satellites and airborne platforms. Furthermore, the extremely directional and adaptable signal transmission provided by beamforming and phased array antennas in 5G NTN makes it challenging for unauthorised organisations to intercept these signals without the employment of advanced tools and methods.

Ecosystem of 5G NTN Market

The prominent players in the 5G NTN market include Thales (France), Qualcomm Technologies (US), MediaTek (Taiwan), and so on. These companies have been operating in the market for several years and possess a diversified product portfolio, state-of-the-art technologies, and a well-established geographic footprint.

"By location, rural segment to hold the largest market size during the forecast period.”

The digital gap is being substantially reduced by the increasing demand in rural areas for 5G NTN , which gives residents of these areas access to high-speed internet. Big participants in the industry are taking advantage of this chance to increase their footprint as suppliers of internet access. In places where terrestrial networks are unable to reach, NTN  plays a critical role in enabling multicast broadcasting, Internet of Vehicles, Internet of Remote Things, and IoT communication. Fixed wireless access, wide-area connectivity, network resilience, emergency response, and disaster management are among of the key uses of 5G NTN in rural areas. Furthermore, 5G NTN can facilitate remote learning, telemedicine, and precision agriculture, improving the standard of living and job prospects in rural areas.

“Aerospace & defense segment is expected to have the fastest growth rate during the forecast period.” 

Increasing adoption of innovative technology and digitalized solutions are the key factors for success in the aerospace and defense industry. Adopting the 5G network in this industry supports various new use cases for the Government and military that enable enterprises to improve public safety communication. In the aerospace industry, 5G is improving the efficiency of various operations, such as urban air mobility, airport operations, and aircraft interiors. 5G NTN solutions are focused on enhancing 5G coverage to support various applications in this industry and provide high-speed internet connectivity to aircraft passengers to ensure the same level of connectivity in the plane as on the ground. In the defense sector, a 5G NTN system will play an important role in supporting application areas, including static communication, deployable CIS for expeditionary operations, land operations, real-time remote surgery, and maritime operations.

“North America to have the largest market size during the forecast period.”

5G NTN adoption is accelerating in North America as a result of both the need for reliable connections in underdeveloped areas and technological advancements. OneWeb and Galaxy Broadband Communications announced on February 1, 2023, that they had reached an agreement worth USD 50 million to provide OneWeb's Low Earth Orbit (LEO) access across Canada, including Nunavut. Being a pioneer in the world of 5G, the US gains from early adoption thanks to industry leaders and forward-thinking government programs. With the creation of the USD 9 billion 5G Fund for Rural America, the USD 1 billion allocation for precision agriculture, and the revision of rules to speed up the attachment of 5G backhaul equipment and investment in next-generation networks, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has played a crucial role.

Market Players:

The major players in the 5G NTN market are Qualcomm Technologies Inc (US), SoftBank Group Corporation (Japan), Thales Group (France), Rohde & Schwarz GmbH & Co KG (Germany), Keysight Technologies, Inc (US), MediaTek Inc. (Taiwan), SES S.A. (Luxembourg), EchoStar Corporation (US), SpaceX (US), AST SpaceMobile (US), ZTE Corporation (China), GateHouse SatCom (Denmark), OneWeb (UK), Omnispace LLC (US), Nelco (India), Skylo Technologies (US), Globalstar Inc (US), Spirent Communications (UK), Ericsson (Sweden), Nokia Corporation (Finland), Telefonica S.A. (Spain), Viasat Inc, (US), Telesat (Canada), Kuiper Systems (US), Sateliot (Spain), VIAVI Solutions (US), Radisys (US). These players have adopted various growth strategies, such as partnerships, agreements and collaborations, new product launches and enhancements, and acquisitions to expand their 5G NTN market footprint.

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Scope of the Report

This research report categorizes the 5G NTN market to forecast revenues and analyze trends in each of the following submarkets:

Based on Offering:

• Hardware
• Software
• Services
• Deployment services
• Connectivity services

Based on Platform:

• UAS Platform
• LEO Satellite
• MEO Satellite
• GEO Satellite

Based on Application

• eMBB
• mMTC
• URLLC

By End-Use Industry:

• Maritime
• Aerospace & Defense
• Government
• Mining
• Other end-use industries

By Location:

• Urban
• Rural
• Remote
• Isolated

By Region:

• North America
  • United States (US)
  • Canada
• Europe
  • United Kingdom (UK)
  • Germany
  • France
  • Italy
  • Rest of Europe
• Asia Pacific
  • China
  • Japan
  • India
  • South Korea
  • Rest of Asia Pacific
• Middle East & Africa
  • GCC Countries
    • Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)
    • United Arab Emirates (UAE)
    • Rest of GCC Countries
  • South Africa
  • Rest of the Middle East & Africa
• Latin America
  • Brazil
  • Mexico
  • Rest of Latin America

Recent Developments

• In March 2024, SpaceX and John Deere partnered to provide cutting-edge satellite communications (SATCOM) service to farmers, utilizing the Starlink network. This will allow farmers facing rural connectivity challenges to leverage precision agriculture technologies fully.
• In March 2024, Gatehouse Satcom and Druid Software signed an MOU to collaborate on efforts to enhance NTN services. This partnership aims to integrate satellite and terrestrial network solutions, creating a more accessible and interoperable infrastructure for the satellite communications industry.
• In October 2023, The Government of Rwanda, in collaboration with SoftBank Corp., announced the successful testing of SoftBank’s exclusive 5G communications payload in the stratosphere. During the demonstration conducted for HAPS research in Rwandan airspace, SoftBank and the Government of Rwanda made history by publicly delivering 5G connectivity from a HAPS UAV in the stratosphere.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ):

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