Military Drone Market Size, Share, Trends & Growth Analysis

Military Drone Market Size & Growth

[353 Pages Report] The military drone market is poised to experience growth, advancing from USD 13.0 billion in 2023 to reach USD 18.2 billion by 2028, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.0% during the period from 2023 to 2028. The military drone volume is projected to grow from 34,945 (in Units) in 2023 to 51,930 (in Units) by 2028. Military drones, operated autonomously, through remote control, or a combination of both, are equipped with sensors, electronic receivers and transmitters, and offensive ordnance. These drones play a crucial role in strategic and combat zone reconnaissance, intervening on the front lines by designating targets for precision-guided munitions or directly deploying these munitions themselves. Originating as remotely piloted vehicles (RPVs) or drones, they were initially small radio-controlled aircraft utilized in World War II for target training. Presently, major military powers and even some militia groups employ battlefield surveillance UAVs to extend the observation capabilities of ground and naval forces, enhancing the reach and accuracy of supporting fire.

Military Drone Market Forecast to 2028

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Military drone market Dynamics:

Driver: Emergence of non-traditional adversaries and asymmetric warfare

The global race among nations to invest in drone technology has sparked a competitive environment. This competition is propelling significant advancements in drone capabilities as countries aim to outpace each other. The growing demand for military drones stems from the evolving nature of conflicts, where non-traditional adversaries and asymmetric warfare tactics pose challenges. Drones offer a strategic advantage by providing precision in strikes and real-time intelligence, making them essential in countering these modern threats. This demand for more sophisticated drone capabilities is a key factor stimulating the expansion of the military drone market.

Driver: Rise of advanced avionics technologies

The surge in the growth of military drones is unprecedented due to the advancement in technology. Advancements in electronics, sensing and communication have greatly enhanced the functionality of these drones. The Navigation Systems have also improved making it easier for these drones to move and get to exact destinations with precision. Furthermore, the clarity of images is amplified by higher resolution cameras improving surveillance.

The use of accurate ammunitions changed the trend as they allowed for Engaging in more refined and successful fighting operations from the air. With the use of these machines, combat operations are rendered more or less impossible.

Restraint: Limited flight time of military drones due to battery life

Military drones have a finite endurance, typically ranging from a few hours to a day, depending on the type and model. This limitation can impact their effectiveness in prolonged missions, such as surveillance or reconnaissance, and may require additional resources for deployment and maintenance. Factors such as adverse weather conditions, payload weight, and regulatory constraints can further restrict the flight time and range of military drones. While technological advancements are continuously pushing the boundaries of drone flight capabilities, the current limitations in endurance and range remain a significant challenge for the military drone market.

Restraint: Concern and call to ban fully autonomous drones

Various nations have admitted the increased control by some states, panicking whence calls go up for human management of drone operations to ensure the safety and protection of drones from the fully autonomous and AI-based systems. There are further fears that governments may secretly develop capabilities that range from 'automated killer drones' to weapons systems so that they may declare themselves the victors in the new arms race. This demands that all military drone agencies announce their use in public rostrums and halt on constructing lethal robotic drones since they cannot adhere to the standards of International Humanitarian Law.

It is therefore argued that the purpose of banning fully autonomous drones is to ensure that technology benefits humanity and to protect human rights. The international community has also received a clear understanding of the dangers that inhuman judicial replacement poses for weapon products that run on autonomous modes. This entaes, with the support of the campaign to halt killer robots, a development that gained momentum since for the past 10 years.

Multiple stakeholders like lawmakers, policy-makers, private companies and international organizations have spoken out in favor of banning fully autonomous weapons. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has stated that weapons capable of independently identifying and attacking humans are morally and politically unacceptable. The urgency to tackle the issue is manifested in the fact that the growing number of countries has caused this matter to rise. A total of 97 nations have raised particular awareness issues on the lethal autonomous weapons systems within a document by Human Rights Watch.

Opportunity: State policies aimed at boosting domestic manufacturers

The favorable state policies of many countries are encouraging domestic manufacturers to acquire military drone technology independent of foreign suppliers. Spain’s RAPAZ program, for example, seeks to encourage the local industry by acquiring small drones for evaluation by the Spanish military exclusively from domestic producers. Likewise, most of Ukraine’s fleet of small drones is provided by domestic manufacturers like Athlon Avia that responded to a need — sometimes in creative ways — for drones following Russia’s invasion of Crimea and the Donbas region. Partnerships between countries like Ukraine and Turkey, Spain and Colombia, and South Africa and the United Arab Emirates have led to joint projects to develop uncrewed aircraft as well as subsystems and munitions for drones. These collaborations offer manufacturers ways to build local capacity, gain access to new markets and technology, and overcome export restrictions.

Opportunity: Technological advancements in drone payloads

Technological advancements have favored UAV application in different sectors, thus availing a buoyant growth opportunity for the military drone market worldwide. Recently-acquired technical proficiencies have ushered in the development of newly designed reusable armed drones, such as China’s Blowfish A3 and Turkey’s Songar, which possess swappable payloads of mortars, grenades, and light machine guns.

Some of the technological innovations in UAVs have made engineers adopt the manufacturing of advanced UAVs, increasing both government organizations and private agencies' investment in recent UAV development, according to a report from Bricon UAV. The proliferation of strike-capable drones is driving the development and sale of drone-specific guided munitions. For instance, according to Turkey's Roketsan, interest from international customers in its MAM series of lightweight munitions for drones has grown at the same time as respect for Turkish UAVs.

Challenge: Defining secure identification for safety

The challenge of ensuring safety and security in military drone operations is a significant concern due to the potential risks posed by drones. Drones are small, quick, and difficult to spot, making them a potential threat to public safety, particularly when used intentionally near critical infrastructure such as airports and nuclear power plants. To address these concerns, an identifying system for drones and their operators is required to strike a balance between security and privacy.

One of the key challenges in ensuring safety and security in military drone operations is the vulnerability of drones to hacking attempts, which can compromise their performance or enable adversaries to access sensitive information.

Challenge: Issues with hijacking and security of UAVs

The security challenges drones face are great, but hijacking is a very real concern. Although communications between drones and remote controllers are encrypted, the same nature of encrypted codes makes hijacking a suitable target. Confronted with issues of military drones with respect to their security aspects causes several technical problems that must be solved. The major issue is targeting a lightweight solution while being open to both the physical and digital sides. That simply means to keep an eye on power consumption and battery consumption, which play a crucial role in deciding the efficacy and endurance of almost all military drone operations. Military drones are outfitted with hardware to boost communication security levels above and beyond the standard of the Common Criteria Evaluation and Validation Scheme (CMVP).

Military Drone Market Ecosystem

Prominent companies and start-ups that provide military drones and their services, distributors/suppliers/retailers, industrial sectors, and end customers are the key stakeholders in the military drone market ecosystem. Investors, funders, academic researchers, distributors, service providers, and industries using military drones serve as the major influencers in the market.

Based on type, the fixed wing military drone segment is projected to grow at the highest CAGR during the forecast period.

The military drone market has been segmented based on type into fixed wing, rotary wing, and hybrid. The fixed-wing segment has been further divided into conventional take-off and landing (CTOL) and vertical take-off and landing (VTOL), while the rotary wing segment has been classified into single rotor and multirotor.

Fixed-wing drones make use of wings to move upward from the ground during take-off, just like airplanes. They require engines to offer them a forward thrust, while wings offer them the required vertical lift to fly. Fixed-wing UAVs can fly longer than rotary-wing drones. They are most distinct in terms of their payloads, endurance ranges, and applications. The drawback of fixed-wing drones is the requirement of runways for their landing or take-off. Some examples of fixed-wing UAVs are MQ-9 Reaper and MQ-1 Predator from General Atomics (US) and RQ-4 Global Hawk from Northrop Grumman Corporation (US). Fixed-wing drones are further classified into conventional take-off and landing (CTOL) UAVs and vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) UAVs..

Based on operation mode, remotely piloted segment is estimated to account for the largest share in 2023.

Based on operation mode, The military drone market is divided into remotely piloted, optionally piloted, and fully autonomous categories. The remotely piloted segment is expected to experience significant growth in the forecast period, driven by the cost-effective utilization of these drones across various applications, from defense operations to surveys. Optionally piloted drones, known for their high maneuverability and advanced technologies, come with relatively low maintenance costs. However, there is an anticipated shift towards fully autonomous drones in the future. This transition is attributed to the latter's high payload capacity, enhanced propulsion power, extended endurance, and the capability to operate without human involvement.

North America, Europe and Asia Pacific account for the top regions with the highest market share.

The North America region is projected to Grow at highest market share during the forecast period

The North American military drone market, encompassing the US and Canada, exhibited the largest share in 2022. This dominance can be attributed to the presence of major military UAV manufacturers such as General Atomics, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Raytheon Technologies Corporation, and Northrop Grumman in the US. Technological advancements in armed UAVs have further propelled market growth. The substantial allocation of defense budgets by the US government, amounting to USD 801.0 billion in 2021, has played a crucial role in enhancing the capabilities of armed forces in air, land, and naval domains.

Military Drone Market by Region

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The Europe market is projected to have the second largest share in 2024 in the military drone market

There are large reasons for which the rest of the military drone market in Europe will be second only after that of North America by 2024. Firstly, countries like France, Germany, and the UK assign considerable funding for advanced drone technology initiatives under the frame of their defense modernization endeavors. In this respect, other cooperation efforts in the framework of the European Union, together with the European Defence Fund (EDF), encourage the development and integration of domestic drone technologies, which again strengthens the region's share in the coming days. Additionally, the procurement of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), and combat operations witnesses a rapid upsurge in light of the increasing demand, both tactical and strategic. Moreover, the growing emphasis on border security, counter-terrorism actions, and military capability augmentations have contributed to an increase in demand for military drones across European borders, gluing into their marketplace thereupon strengthening its standing amongst global military drone markets.

The Asia Pacific market is projected to have the third largest share in 2024 in the military drone market

The Asia Pacific military drone market is expected to be the third-largest market in 2024 as rising defense expenditures and organization of rapid modernization of military forces are factors of influence in this sector. Key countries like China, India, Japan, and South Korea invest exponentially in UAV technologies to empower their defense efficiently. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea and along other regional borders urged more demand for drone-based ISR and combat missions. Being among the most notable players in the world of military drones development and export, China contributes significantly to increasing, mostly through the share of markets in the region. Also, growing relationships between the domestic defense manufacturers and foreign players to enhance drone capabilities are further driving the growth in the Asia Pacific military drones market.

Key Market Players

The major players in the military drone market are Northrop Grumman Corporation (US), Raytheon Technologies Corporation (US), Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd. (Israel), General Atomics Aeronautical Systems (GA-ASI) (US), and Teledyne FLIR LLC (US). These players have adopted various growth strategies such as contracts, joint ventures, partnerships & agreements, acquisitions, and new product launches to further expand their presence in the military drone market.

Military Drone Market Report Scope

Military Drone Market Highlights

This research report categorizes the Military Drones markets based on platform, application, MTOW, speed, type, operation mode, launching mode, propulsion, and region.

Recent Developments

• In December 2023, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, a business unit of General Atomics, has been awarded a USD 389 million contract to deliver MQ-1C-25M Gray Eagle Modernized Extended Range systems to the U.S. Army. The contract, a fixed-price incentive award, is expected to be completed by November 29, 2024.
• In October 2023, Both Ukrainian and Russian forces heavily utilize remotely piloted drones like the MQ-9 Reaper and Orlan-10 for reconnaissance, targeting, and launching attacks, highlighting their continued importance in modern warfare.
• In June 2023, The US Air Force successfully tested the Boeing Phantom Express, a hypersonic prototype exceeding Mach 5, demonstrating significant progress in supersonic drone technology.
• In June 2023, Northrop Grumman secured a USD 1.4 billion contract to deliver six additional MQ-4C Triton HALE UAVs to the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF). This expands Australia's existing fleet of three Tritons, bolstering its maritime surveillance and capabilities.

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