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Future of Automotive Aftermarket

Report Code AT 9380
Published in Apr, 2025, By MarketsandMarkets™
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Future of Automotive Aftermarket by Components (Tires, Engine Oil, Collision Body Parts, Filters, Steering, Batteries, Brake Parts, Exhaust, AC Compressor, Shocks & Struts, ECU, Alternators, Starters, Others), and Region (China, APAC (excl. China), North America, Europe, RoW) - Forecast to 2030

US Tariff Impact on Future of Automotive Aftermarket

Trump Tariffs Are Reshaping Global Business

 

Overview

The global automotive aftermarket was USD 674.61 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 804.87 billion by 2030, witnessing a CAGR of 2.9% during the same period. The rise in the global automotive aftermarket market is driven by the growing age of vehicles, increasing mileage per year, and rising sales of EVs.

Automakers are increasingly digitalizing their value chains, making products and services more cost-efficient. Connected car technologies, including internet-enabled features and over-the-air updates, are becoming standard, enabling predictive maintenance to prevent breakdowns. ADAS are creating new opportunities for OES and IAM. Additionally, on-demand services, such as car-sharing and subscription models, are emerging as key investment areas for companies looking to diversify and expand their revenue streams. In North America and Europe, consolidation within the aftermarket industry is a growing trend, with more mergers and acquisitions reshaping the competitive landscape.

The rise of e-commerce in automotive parts and component distribution will bring substantial changes as it allows OEMs to reach their target customers directly and offer a wider variety of products. Governments across the globe are pushing for initiatives related to sustainable practices, building a truly circular economy, and integrating advanced technologies, further fueling this dynamic market and positioning the aftermarket as a critical growth sector in the automotive industry.

Future of Automotive Aftermarket

Attractive Opportunities in the Future of Automotive Aftermarket

CHINA

Digitalization will be a major driver for the rising market demand for aftermarket parts. The rise of e-Commerce will create new sales channels and opportunities for automotive part players.

OES & IAM are focusing on making their xEV product and service offerings more attractive to customers in terms of price by offering loyalty benefits or customized maintenance packages.

Digitalization will give rise to new-age business models. On-demand services are expected to see gradual growth.

Growth of this market can be attributed to the rapid adoption of EVs and the robust government support for the automotive industry.

The rising penetration of ADAS in vehicles will require the introduction of a separate stream of ADAS-related maintenance parts and services.

Global Future of Automotive Aftermarket Dynamics

Drivers: Rising age of vehicles and mileage of passenger vehicles to demand aftermarket products and services

Globally, the increasing average age of vehicles and higher annual mileage are significant catalysts for automotive aftermarket growth. As vehicles age and accumulate more kilometers, they will require frequent maintenance and repairs, particularly as they fall outside warranty periods. This trend is amplified by cost-conscious consumer behavior favoring vehicle upkeep over new purchases, the inherent complexity of aging vehicles requiring specialized aftermarket solutions, and a growing DIY culture. Furthermore, advancements in vehicle component quality are extending vehicle lifespans, ensuring a sustained demand for replacement parts, maintenance services, and customization options worldwide.

Restraint: Counterfeit products pose a challenge

Counterfeit products pose a serious challenge to the automotive aftermarket’s growth. These substandard parts often jeopardize vehicle safety and performance due to their inferior materials and lack of adherence to OEM quality standards. Counterfeit components can lead to critical system failures, increasing accident risks, and potentially damaging other authentic vehicle parts. This issue erodes consumer trust in the aftermarket and can tarnish the image of legitimate brands. The rise of online marketplaces has amplified the challenge of counterfeit distribution, making it easier for these fake products to reach consumers. Dealing with this requires a concerted effort involving stricter regulations, robust enforcement mechanisms, heightened consumer awareness regarding the dangers of counterfeit parts, and the implementation of advanced authentication technologies. Aftermarket businesses must prioritize sourcing from verified suppliers and actively educate their customers about the risks associated with counterfeit goods to safeguard vehicle safety and maintain the industry’s integrity.

 

Opportunity: Parts remanufacturing to create new revenue streams and achieve emission goals

The automotive sector has been pushing to achieve net-zero emissions by 2035 across all regions. Recycling and reusing are some of the major contributors to achieving this. Remanufactured parts offer two-way benefits for auto part companies aiming for zero emissions while generating revenue. Remanufacturing involves taking end-of-life or worn-out components and disassembling them. The process includes cleaning, repairing, and replacing damaged parts to meet or exceed OEM standards. By doing this, remanufacturing significantly reduces the need for energy-intensive raw material extraction and the manufacturing processes associated with producing new parts. As a result, it helps lower the industry's carbon footprint. This circular economy approach conserves resources, minimizes waste sent to landfills, and requires substantially less energy than creating new components, directly contributing to lower emissions. Simultaneously, remanufacturing creates a cost-effective alternative to new parts, appealing to budget-conscious consumers and repair shops, thereby establishing a robust and growing revenue stream for auto part companies. This aligns economic viability with environmental responsibility, making remanufactured parts a key strategy in achieving sustainability goals within the automotive sector.

Challenge: Trade wars may cause disruption in the supply chain and artificially tamper with demands, which may have a significant impact on costs for local industries

The global automotive aftermarket industry faces significant disruption from taxes, tariffs, and trade wars. Increased sales taxes on parts and services elevate consumer costs, potentially reducing demand for maintenance, especially for older vehicles. Tariffs on imported parts inflate prices for domestic suppliers and repair shops, translating to higher service costs and reduced profitability. Tariffs on new vehicles can paradoxically boost aftermarket demand as consumers retain older cars longer, yet increased overall expenses might deter necessary repairs. Trade wars generate supply chain volatility, causing part shortages, escalating costs due to tariffs and logistical challenges, and potentially lowering consumer demand, impacting spending on vehicle upkeep. Companies will make supply chain adjustments and potential relocations, incurring higher operational costs, which are expected to be passed on to the consumers. The interconnected global nature of the automotive sector means trade disputes in one region reverberate across the aftermarket, affecting pricing, availability, and the financial health of businesses worldwide, creating uncertainty and hindering growth. These factors collectively introduce significant challenges to the stability and affordability of vehicle maintenance and repair on a global scale.

Global Future of Automotive Aftermarket Ecosystem Analysis

Top Companies in Future of Automotive Aftermarket

Note: The above diagram only shows the representation of the Future of Automotive Aftermarket ecosystem; it is not limited to the companies represented above.
Source: Secondary Research and MarketsandMarkets Analysis

China to be a leader in the global automotive aftermarket

China is poised to become the largest global automotive aftermarket due to its massive and expanding vehicle parc, creating a substantial consumer base. The increasing average age of vehicles shifts responsibility for maintenance to owners, driving aftermarket demand. Rising disposable incomes enable greater spending on vehicle upkeep and enhancements. China’s robust automotive manufacturing and e-commerce ecosystem provides widespread access to parts and services, enhancing market efficiency. The growing adoption of EVs, while altering product needs, contributes to overall global demand. The maturation of a standardized and transparent aftermarket featuring independent repair chains fosters consumer trust and stimulates growth. These converging factors—scale, aging fleet, economic growth, digital penetration, evolving vehicle technology, regulatory focus, and market formalization—power China’s ascent to the forefront of the global automotive aftermarket.

CHINA: LARGEST MARKET VALUE (2024–2030)
TIRES LARGEST aftermarket component segment
Future of Automotive Aftermarket by region

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Scope of the Report

Report Attribute Details
Market size available for years 2024–2030
Forecast units Volume (Million Units), Value (USD Billion)
Segments Covered Component and Region
Regions covered China, APAC (excl. China), Europe, NA, RoW

Key Questions Addressed by the Report

What is the current size of the global automotive aftermarket?
The global automotive aftermarket is estimated to be valued at USD 674.61 billion and is projected to reach USD 804.87 billion by 2030.
What are the trends impacting the growth of the global automotive aftermarket?
Rising digitalization and e-Commerce, increasing consolidation in the aftermarket, development of new-age business models, the transformation of the aftermarket due to EV adoption, and growth in demand for remanufactured parts are some significant trends expected to be seen in the automotive aftermarket.
What are the new market trends around the circular economy in the global automotive aftermarket industry?
Remanufactured parts are one of the most significant upcoming product trends in the aftermarket, which will be heavily focused on achieving circular economy goals.
How are digitalization and e-Commerce expected to impact the global automotive aftermarket?
E-commerce and digitalization will offer consumers greater convenience, wider product selection, and competitive pricing while enabling businesses to optimize and digitize operations and access broader markets through online platforms and data-driven insights.
What product will be a key focus in the global automotive aftermarket?
Although there is not one answer, ADAS-related parts and services and remanufactured automotive components will be two major aftermarket products that are expected to become a key focus.

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Table of Contents

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TITLE
PAGE NO
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1
  • 1.1 GLOBAL & REGIONAL LIGHT VEHICLE PARC
  • 1.2 GLOBAL LIGHT VEHICLE AFTERMARKET COMPONENTS DEMAND
  • 1.3 AFTERMARKET COMPONENTS REPLACEMENT INTERVAL & FREQUENCY
  • 1.4 AFTERMARKET GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES ACROSS THE SUPPLY CHAIN
  • 1.5 KEY TRENDS IMPACTING THE FUTURE OF THE AFTERMARKET BY 2030
RESEARCH SCOPE, OBJECTIVES, AND METHODOLOGY
2
  • 2.1 STUDY SCOPE
  • 2.2 STUDY OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY
MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS & REGULATORY ANALYSIS
3
  • 3.1 GDP GROWTH PROJECTIONS BY REGION
  • 3.2 GLOBAL INFLATION RATE BY REGION
  • 3.3 GLOBAL CRUDE OIL PRICE VS. LITHIUM-ION BATTERY PRICE TRENDS TILL 2030
AFTERMARKET DEMAND DRIVERS
4
  • 4.1 GLOBAL LIGHT VEHICLE PARC, BY REGION
  • 4.2 AVERAGE AGE AND DISTANCE (KM) DRIVEN PER YEAR
AFTERMARKET TOP TRENDS
5
  • 5.1 INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION
  • 5.2 RISE OF NEW AGE BUSINESS MODELS
  • 5.3 E-COMMERCE
  • 5.4 EVS ARE REMODELING THE AFTERMARKET LANDSCAPE
  • 5.5 REMAN PARTS TO BECOME MAINSTREAM
GLOBAL AFTERMARKET POTENTIAL
6
  • 6.1 GLOBAL LIGHT VEHICLE AFTERMARKET, BY REGION
  • 6.2 GLOBAL LIGHT VEHICLE AFTERMARKET, BY COMPONENTS
  • 6.3 CHINA: LIGHT VEHICLE AFTERMARKET, BY COMPONENT & DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL
  • 6.4 APAC (EXCL. CHINA): LIGHT VEHICLE AFTERMARKET, BY COMPONENT & DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL
  • 6.5 EUROPE: LIGHT VEHICLE AFTERMARKET, BY COMPONENT & DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL
  • 6.6 NA: LIGHT VEHICLE AFTERMARKET, BY COMPONENT & DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL
  • 6.7 ROW: LIGHT VEHICLE AFTERMARKET, BY COMPONENT & DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL
IMPACT OF DIGITALIZATION
7
EV/ADAS AFTER-SALES STRATEGIES
8
ON-DEMAND SERVICES
9
CIRCULAR ECONOMY/SUSTAINABILITY STRATEGIES
10
CONCLUSION & FUTURE OUTLOOK
11

The study involved analyzing the recent developments, trends, and performance of the players and the global automotive aftermarket industry for 2024, along with the projections for 2030. The analysis was based on the sales volume and vehicle parc of light vehicles on a global and regional level. The study also analyzes the significant milestones in the global automotive aftermarket industry across vehicle connectivity, e-commerce, re-manufacturing, digitalization, electrification, and other critical aspects in 2024. An exhaustive secondary research collected information on the market, peer, and parent markets. The next step was to validate these findings & assumptions and size them with industry experts across value chains through primary research. The bottom-up approach was employed to estimate the global and regional aftermarket size for all the key components considered. Thereafter, market breakdown and data triangulation were used to estimate the market size of segments and subsegments.

Secondary Research

The secondary sources referred for this research study include automotive OEMs, Tier I/II companies, and publications from government sources, automotive associations & databases [such as country-level automotive associations and organizations, European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), National Automotive Part Association (NAPA), Society of Indian Automotive Manufacturers (SIAM), International Energy Agency (IEA), Organization Internationale des Constructeurs d’Automobiles (OICA), European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), MarkLines and others]; corporate filings (annual reports, investor presentations, and financial statements); and trade, business, and automotive associations. Secondary data has been collected and analyzed to determine the overall sales volume, further validated through primary research.

Primary Research

Extensive primary research has been conducted after understanding the light vehicle aftermarket scenario through secondary research. Primary research was done to understand and validate the findings on the light vehicle sales and aftermarket performance in 2024 and validate the projections made for 2030.

Several primary interviews have been conducted with market experts from both the demand (OEMs/vehicle manufacturers) side and the industry’s supply side. Approximately 80% of the experts involved in primary interviews have been from the demand side, and 20% have been from the industry’s supply side. Primary data has been collected through questionnaires, emails, and telephonic interviews. Various organizational departments, such as sales, operations, and administration, have conducted several primary interviews to provide a holistic viewpoint in the report.

After interacting with industry participants, some brief sessions have been conducted with experienced independent consultants to reinforce the findings from the primary interviews. This, along with the opinions of the in-house subject matter experts, has led to the findings in the rest of this report.

Market Size Estimation

The bottom-up approach was used to estimate and validate the global automotive aftermarket. This approach was also used to identify the sales of various subsegments in the market. The research methodology used to estimate the market includes the following:

Future of Automotive Aftermarket : Bottom-Up Approach

Future of Automotive Aftermarket Top Down and Bottom Up Approach

To know about the assumptions considered for the study, download the pdf brochure

Data Triangulation

The global automotive aftermarket 2030 analyzes the aftermarket demand for key components and leading trends impacting the aftermarket, which include the rising penetration of EVs across the key regions, rising average age and miles traveled in a year, and the growing role of new-age business models in developing sustainable revenue streams and their variation based on IAM and OES players.

Stakeholders

  • Automobile Organizations/Associations
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Automotive System Manufacturers
  • Automotive Electronics Manufacturers
  • Automotive Technology Providers
  • Aftermarket Players
  • Aftermarket Dealers/Distributors
  • Automotive Retailers
  • Country-specific Automotive Associations
  • Society of Indian Automotive Manufacturers (SIAM)
  • EV Component Manufacturers
  • EV Charging Infrastructure Companies
  • Authorized/Independent Aftermarket Players
  • Automotive TechGovernment & Research Organizations
  • Raw Material Suppliers for the Automotive Industry
  • Software Providers
  • Traders, Distributors, and Suppliers of Automotive Components

Report Objectives

  • To analyze the light vehicle parc  and understand the global automotive aftermarket dynamics from 2024 to 2030
  • To derive the light vehicle aftermarket from 2024 to 2030
  • To understand the demand for regional aftermarket components
  • To identify the emerging services for hybrid & electric vehicles in the aftermarket
  • To understand the OES Vs. IAM benchmarking strategies
  • To track and analyze competitive developments such as deals (joint ventures, mergers & acquisitions, partnerships, collaborations), product developments, and other activities carried out by key industry participants

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