Google AI Chief Predicts 50% Chance of Achieving AGI in 5 Years
Shane Legg, co-founder of Google's DeepMind, reaffirms his prediction made in 2011 that there is a 50% likelihood of reaching Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) within the next five years. In a recent interview, Legg discussed the factors that influenced his initial forecast and the challenges that still lie ahead.
Legg's prediction is significant in the context of the growing interest in AGI development. While the concept of AGI, which represents AI systems capable of performing tasks at the level of human intelligence, has gained attention, defining and achieving it remains complex.
The global Artificial intelligence market size is expected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 36.8% during the forecast period, to reach USD 1,345.2 billion by 2030 from USD 150.2 billion in 2023.
The first challenge is defining AGI, which is closely tied to human intelligence. Legg acknowledged that it's difficult to create a comprehensive set of tests to measure human-like intelligence, as human cognition is intricate. However, he believes that if an AI model can perform well across various tests of human intelligence, it can be considered AGI.
The second challenge involves scaling up AI training models, given the enormous computing power required. Legg anticipates that scalable algorithms will be developed to meet this demand, as AI companies invest heavily in AI model development.
Despite his optimism, Legg emphasized that he still believes there's a 50% chance of achieving AGI within the next decade. He acknowledged the complexity of AGI and the possibility of unforeseen challenges.
In a separate interview with OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman and CTO Mira Murati, they discussed AGI's significance and potential impact. AGI is seen as a transformative technology with the ability to generalize across various domains, greatly enhancing human productivity and creativity.
Altman highlighted AGI as a tool for solving complex problems and fostering creative expression, envisioning a future where its benefits outweigh any reservations. He emphasized that while AI systems might struggle in specialized areas, they can excel in tasks where human skills are average or less, providing substantial assistance.
Google DeepMind's co-founder, Shane Legg, maintains his prediction of a 50% chance of achieving AGI within five years, highlighting the challenges of defining and scaling AGI. Meanwhile, OpenAI's Sam Altman and Mira Murati underscore AGI's transformative potential and its role in enhancing human creativity and problem-solving capabilities.
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AGI is seen as a transformative technology with the ability to generalize across various domains, greatly enhancing human productivity and creativity.
Google DeepMind's co-founder, Shane Legg, maintains his prediction of a 50% chance of achieving AGI within five years
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