Global Automotive Industry Outlook, 2024
[74 Pages Report] The Global Automotive Industry Outlook, 2024 will have global passenger and commercial vehicles combined sales projected to 95 million units in 2024, witnessing a YoY growth of 3.1% during the forecast period. The combined sales volume of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles witnessed a YoY growth of 12.3% from 2022 to 2023, wherein the passenger vehicles segment dominated the sales of the cars in 2023 with over 60% of the share. Further, within the regional market Asia and ME region combined accounted for more than half of the market share. While the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicles held the major share, the Electric Vehicles (EV) segment grew at a high rate of 30-35% over 2022.
Dedicated to achieving zero emission targets, the OEMs have planned to invest over USD 500 Billion by 2030 for EV production facilities. Hyundai invested over $1.5 billion to build new Ulsan EV Factory in South Korea in November 2023. Similarly, Honda, Volkswagen, Ford and others have made investments in new manufacturing facilities. Further, the prices of lithium-ion battery packs went down by 14% in 2023 to reach a new record low of $139/kWh. Moreover, OEMs have attempted to regulate the EV battery supply chain to further cut down the raw material, manufacturing and maintenance of the batteries.
Globally there were over 2.7 million public charging points by the end of 2022, of which around a million charging points were installed in 2022 alone. Further, it is estimated that over one million new charging points were installed by the end of 2023. In addition, efforts were made to manufacture batteries that hold higher capacity to power the EV over longer distance and recharge it in shorter time. For instance, CATL’s new battery requires 10 minutes of charging to cover 400 kms.
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Global Automotive Industry Outlook Market Dynamics:
Driver: Consistent growth in the EV segment over traditional ICE vehicles
The EV segment registered a strong growth of 30-40% in 2023 due growing preference towards clean transportation and government support through incentives. While the EV segment would demonstrate double digit growth in 2024, the sales are expected to slow down as compared to previous years. This can be attributed to reduction in government incentives across key countries, and intensifying competition among others. The electrification in commercial vehicles is challenged by factors such as range limitations, inadequate charging infrastructure and concerns on vehicle performance.
The EV charging infrastructure is significantly growing to cater the needs of the consumers. In 2023, over a million new EV charging points were installed around the world. These charging points consisted of both slow chargers as well as fast chargers. For instance, in 2023, close to 16,000 charging points were installed in the UK, taking the number of total charging points over 53,000; wherein, more than 4,500 were fast charging points. In addition, successful pilot projects were carried out for wireless charging points in Japan, China, Germany, US and other countries in Europe. A collective of over $50 billion was announced by the governments and EV charging solution providers in 2023. The sum of the money will be gradually invested to setup charging points across the world.
The years 2022 and 2023 saw significant rise in driving technology of cars wherein autonomous cars have been introduced in the market to enhance safety and security of the passengers. OEMs such as BMW and Mercedes have received approval for L3 autonomous vehicles in Germany and the US, respectively. BMW has also received approval to test its L3 vehicles in Shanghai, China. We expect L3 vehicle sales to gain pace in 2024 as these OEMs start rolling out their L3 models.
Restraint: Fluctuating prices of the vehicles and fossil fuel
Due to continuous unrest in the geopolitics taking place around the world, the manufacturing of components of vehicles and fuel prices have risen. The Ukraine-Russia disrupted the trade of oil & gas as well as the manufacturing of vehicles. Ukraine and Russia are amongst the major countries that manufacture vehicle components. Therefore, the war between these two countries led to shortage of vehicle components and thus led to fluctuation of prices of vehicles. In addition, there were sanctions of the oil & gas from Russia to the European nations, which led to rise in fuel prices. Moreover, the trade war between the US and China had a negative impact of the supply chain of the automotive industry causing price fluctuation. While the Israel-Hamas war had limited impact on the automotive industry, the war resulted in increased oil prices which marginally affected the industry growth.
Opportunity: Growing adoption of connected vehicles
Connectivity in vehicles provides better consumer experience, efficient data-driven services and opens innovative business models. In 2022, approximately 90% of the connected cars had integration of 4G technology. However, with 5G connectivity the share of connected cars is expected to grow. It is expected that over 20% of the cars on road will be connected to cellular network by the end of 2024. Companies have started exploring the connectivity space to gain first mover advantage in the market. For instance, in December 2023, Magna, a major supplier in the automotive industry joined Telia and Ericsson’s NorthStar Program to innovate and deploy the 5G ADAS system.
Challenge: Short range of EVs and charging time
The Global Automotive Industry Outlook, 2024 has witnessed numerous innovations and technological advancements in the EV sector. However, The limited range of the battery operated vehicles is a major challenge faced by the EV customer. Moreover, the charging time required for the batteries subsequently increases the travel time as well as increases the number of stops for charging considering the long-distance travel. This causes major challenge to the OEMs to scale in the EV market.
By Vehicle type, Passenger vehicle segment is estimated to account for the largest global automotive industry outlook market during 2024
The passenger vehicle market share contributes over 60% of the share in the automotive industry. The utility vehicles such as SUVs and MPVs demonstrated significant growth and held the major share in the passenger vehicle segment. In addition, heavy commercial vehicles held a slightly larger share than light commercial vehicles in the overall commercial vehicle segment. Further, the combined market of PV and CV has grown by over 12% from 2022 to 2023. This growth is expected to continue in 2024. The utility vehicle category in PV segment, whereas the LCV category in the CV segment witnessed the strong growth rate in 2023.
“Asia and Middle East holds the major share in the global automotive industry outlook, 2024 market.”
Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions hold the major share in the sales volume of PV and CV combined. The major factor for this is the intensive manufacturing and export of cars in China. The Chinese market is the worlds largest market in terms of vehicle sales as well as production. In 2023, China’s sales volume for passenger vehicles was over 25 million units, with a share of around 50% globally. Moreover, the Chinese market has significantly grown post COVID halt. The recovery effect of the economy in China has led to intensifying of the manufacturing sector. One of the key trends/strategies followed by the Chinese EV makers is expansion to the European market for EV sales expansion. Companies such as NIO and Xpeng are aggressively expanding into the European region with plans of establishing their vehicle as well as battery production plants. Moreover, countries such as India and South Korea significantly contribute to the growth of the automobile sector in the Asian region, wherein, the Indian passenger vehicle market recorded its highest sales of over 4 million units in 2023.
Key Market Players
The top performing OEMs in 2023 were Toyota, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Stellantis NV accounting of around 25% of the market share. Whereas BYD Auto, Tesla and Volkswagen group led the EV segment with cumulative of over 30% of the market share. The EV companies are focused on battery technology development and investing into the battery ecosystem to ensure a sustainable supply chain. These companies adopted new product launches, acquisitions, partnerships, collaborations, and other key strategies to gain traction in the Global Automotive Industry Outlook, 2024.
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Scope of the Report
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Report Metric |
Details |
|
Market size available for years |
2022–2024 |
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Forecast units |
Volume (Million Units) |
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Segments covered |
Vehicle Type, Propulsion Type and Region. |
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Geographies covered |
North America, Asia Pacific, Europe, and Rest of the World. |
Vehicle Type
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Passenger Vehicle (PV)
- Hatchback
- Sedan
- Utility Vehicle (SUV/MPV)
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Commercial Vehicle (CV)
- Light CV
- MHCV & Buses
Propulsion Type
- Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicles
- Electric Vehicles (EV)
Region
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Asia Pacific & Middle East
- China
- India
- Japan
- South Korea
- UAE
- Rest of Asia Pacific & Middle East
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North America
- US
- Canada
- Mexico
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Europe
- Germany
- France
- UK
- Spain
- Italy
- Russia
- Rest of Europe
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Rest of the World
- Brazil
- Argentina
- Egypt
- South Africa
- Morocco
- Others
Recent Developments
- In December 2023, Magna, a major supplier in the automotive industry joined Telia and Ericsson’s NorthStar Program to innovate and deploy the 5G ADAS system.
- In December 2023, IM Motors, a brand of SAIC Motor Corp and Alibaba were granted permission to test L3 self-driving car in Shanghai.
- In December 2023, Tata Power EV Charging Solutions and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) announced a joint venture to install over 500 fast and ultra-fast charging points across major cities and highways of India
- In November 2023, Aurora announced to start autonomous trucking by early 2024 in the region of Texas to overcome the shortage of skilled drivers and to effectively manage the transport business.
- In September 2023, a leading Chinese EV battery manufacturer, Gotion, has announced to invest $2 billion to setup EV lithium battery plant in Illinois, US.
- In July 2023, BMW announced to launch a 7 Series model that will have a Level 3 autonomous system. This technology will enable the driver to perform other in-vehicle activities, driving at a speed of 37mph.
- In May 2023, Ford announced a collaboration with CATL to setup a EV battery plant in Michigan, US by investing $3.5 billion, which will be operational by 2026.
- In February 2022, Benteler EV Systems, Beep and Mobileye announced a collaboration to develop a fully electric and autonomous (SAE Level 4) vehicle that can be used for commuters on public and private roads by early 2024.
- In January 2022, General Motors launched a new platform CarBravo, which deals in used cars business.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ):
What is the current size of the Global Automotive Industry Outlook?
The global automotive sales volume of passenger vehicle (PV) and commercial vehicle (CV) was 81 million units in 2022 and reached 92 million units in 2023, at a YoY growth of 12.3% from 2022 to 2023
What are the driving factor impacting the growth of the Global Automotive Industry Outlook?
Increasing customer preference for electric vehicles, convenience, premium features, and advanced safety features, integration of connectivity, use of variety of lightweight & advanced materials and innovative finish, enhanced manufacturing process, growing demand for advanced infotainment systems, growing penetration of ADAS systems are the driving factor impacting the growth of the automotive interior market.
What are the new market trends impacting the growth of the Global Automotive Industry Outlook?
Fast & Ultra-fast charging, ADAS and LiDAR technologies, 5G connectivity and autonomous vehicles are some of the major trends affecting this market.
What are the new market trends EV Passenger Vehicle Market?
Fast & Ultra-fast charging, Increasing Battery Pack capacity and Ranges, New Chemistries are some of the key future focus of the EV passenger vehicle segment.
Which region will have the fastest growing EV passenger Vehicle Market?
Asia Pacific is expected to be the fastest growing and largest market in 2023-24 period. .
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The study involved analyzing the recent developments, trends and the performance of the players as well as the overall automobile industry in 2023 along with the projections for 2024. The analysis was based on the sales volume of the vehicles across passenger and commercial segment around the world. The study is also based on analysis of the major milestones in the automotive industry across vehicle connectivity, electrification, autonomous vehicles and other critical aspects that took place in 2023. Exhaustive secondary research was done to collect information on the market, the peer market, and the parent market. The next step was to validate these findings, assumptions, and sizing with the industry experts across value chains through primary research. The bottom-up approach was employed to estimate the complete market size in terms of vehicle sales for the segments considered. Thereafter, market breakdown and data triangulation were used in estimating the market size of segments and subsegments.
Secondary Research
The secondary sources referred for this research study include automotive OEMs, Tier I/II companies, and publication from government sources, automotive associations & databases; [such as country level automotive associations and organizations, International Energy Agency (IEA), Organization Internationale des Constructeurs d’Automobiles (OICA), European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), MarkLines and others]; corporate filings (annual reports, investor presentations, and financial statements); and trade, business, and automotive associations. Secondary data has been collected and analyzed to arrive at the overall sales volume, which has been further validated through primary research.
Primary Research
Extensive primary research has been conducted after acquiring an understanding of the Global Automotive Industry Outlook, 2024 scenario through secondary research. Primary research was done to understand and validate the findings on the performance of the automotive industry in 2023 and validate the projections made for 2024.
Several primary interviews have been conducted with market experts from both the demand (OEMs/vehicle manufacturers) and supply (component manufacturers, module manufacturers, material providers, and system integrators) sides across four major regions, namely, North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Rest of the World. Approximately 80% of the experts involved in primary interviews have been from the demand side, and 20% have been from the supply side of the industry. Primary data has been collected through questionnaires, emails, and telephonic interviews. Several primary interviews have been conducted from various departments within organizations, such as sales, operations, administration, to provide a holistic viewpoint in the report.
After interacting with industry participants, some brief sessions have been conducted with experienced independent consultants to reinforce the findings from the primary interviews. This, along with the in-house subject matter experts’ opinions, has led to the findings delineated in the rest of this report.
Global Automotive Industry Outlook, 2024 Market Size Estimation
The bottom-up and top-down approaches were used to estimate and validate the total automotive vehicle sales volume. This approach was also used to identify the sales of various subsegments in the market. The research methodology used to estimate the market includes the following:
Bottom- up Approach
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Top-down Approach
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Global Automotive Industry Outlook, 2024 Market Definition
Global automotive industry outlook for 2024 includes analysis on the performance and key developments in the automotive industry in 2023 and insights on most anticipated technological developments & growth across electric vehicles, smart manufacturing, connected cars & features and other major aspects of the automotive industry.
Key Stakeholders
- Automobile Organizations/Associations
- Automotive Component Manufacturers
- Automotive Component Suppliers
- Automotive OEMs
- Automotive System Manufacturers
- Automotive Electronics Manufacturers
- Country-specific Automotive Associations
- European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA)
- EV Manufacturers
- EV Component Manufacturers
- EV Charging Infrastructure Companies
- Government & Research Organizations
- Raw Material Suppliers for Automotive Industry
- Software Providers
- Traders, Distributors, and Suppliers of Automotive Components
Report on Global Automotive Industry Outlook, 2024 are mentioned as follows
- To analyze the automotive market performance in 2023
- To provide key developments achieved in 2023.
- To identify the trends that are likely to impact the market in 2024.
- To identify major growth segments and opportunities for 2024.
- To project the automotive vehicle sales in 2024
- To track and analyze competitive developments such as deals (joint ventures, mergers & acquisitions, partnerships, collaborations), product developments, and other activities carried out by key industry participants.
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